Translation. Region: Russian Federation –
Source: KMZ Cargo – KMZ CARGO –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
Experts predict a 10% reduction in the fleet, and consider the ruble exchange rate to be the main factor in demand.
According to RBC, Russian aviation will face a fleet reduction and demand pressure from household incomes in 2026. Route network development will directly depend on the ruble exchange rate: a strong national currency will shift the focus to international destinations, while a weak one will favor domestic routes.
Despite the persistent, challenging external environment from 2022 onward—sanctions, the closure of key markets, and the impossibility of legally adding foreign-made aircraft to the fleet—the industry is demonstrating resilience. Passenger traffic in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 84 million, a decrease of only 2.5% compared to the same period in 2024. However, experts agree that the main challenges for carriers in the coming year are the gradual reduction in capacity and declining real incomes.
Fleet limitations remain the industry's main challenge. Aircraft delivered before 2022 are aging, complicating and prolonging their airworthiness maintenance procedures. Oleg Panteleev, Executive Director of the AviaPort agency, notes that the planned deliveries of new Russian MS-21 and SJ100 aircraft for 2026 will not be able to compensate for the fleet retirement due to the gradual ramp-up of production and lower planned flight hours during the aircraft development period. According to Alexander Lanetsky, CEO of Friendly Avia Support, the number of aircraft in operation will decrease by approximately 10% by the end of 2026. Some aircraft will be grounded due to exhausted engines, the complexity of their maintenance, and limited capacity for heavy-duty maintenance, adds Ilya Shatilin, Editor-in-Chief of the Frequentflyers.ru portal.
However, this won't have a significant impact on the industry, says Georgy Korolev, Project Director at ATK Consulting. Over the past three years, Russian companies have made significant progress in routine maintenance and repairs for major aircraft types. S7 Group confirms this trend in its commentary, noting the expansion of its engineering capabilities and the opening of the second stage of its engine repair plant at Sheremetyevo Airport in November. Since 2022, the company has repaired 401 engines, 335 of which were for other Russian carriers.
Experts believe it's unlikely that sanctions will be lifted in 2026, which precludes the legal import of new foreign aircraft. Alexander Lanetsky doesn't rule out the possibility that some carriers may attempt to import aircraft bypassing restrictions using the "Iranian method"—through a chain of shell companies in third countries, followed by the deactivation of transponders.
In the commercial sphere, the main risk for airlines will be a decline in effective demand. Oleg Panteleev explains that with inflation outpacing income growth, the share of citizens able to fly is declining. In response, carriers can either lower prices to stimulate demand or reduce supply, which seems more logical given fleet problems. The analyst believes that in 2026, airlines will try to maintain or selectively reduce prices to support revenue while maintaining a minimum profit. Georgy Korolev of ATK Consulting and Ilya Shatilin believe that prices will continue to rise, supported by overall inflation and reduced supply, but this growth may be curbed by a decline in consumer activity.
Experts note that the industry's profitability in the new year will largely depend on the strategy of Aeroflot Group, which controls more than half the market. Panteleev points out that if the national carrier, with its own repair resources, decides to maintain its supply volumes, it will be able to set a certain fare level that smaller competitors will be forced to match. Ilya Shatilin adds that the government's willingness to resume large-scale subsidy support, as it did in 2022-2023, could be a key factor in the carriers' financial performance.
No major changes to the route network are expected in 2026, but its structure will be sensitive to the ruble exchange rate. As Oleg Panteleev points out, a strong ruble stimulates demand for international travel, which both Russian and foreign airlines will respond to. A weakening ruble, on the other hand, will redirect traffic to domestic destinations, leading carriers to shift capacity there. The opening of airports in Gelendzhik and Krasnodar in 2025, as well as the hypothetical resumption of operations in Simferopol and Rostov-on-Don, could further shift the balance in favor of the domestic market. At the same time, experts note that smaller carriers will have to more actively develop regional hubs and seek niche destinations to minimize competition with Aeroflot.
Thus, by the end of 2026, the shape of the Russian aviation industry, as Oleg Panteleev summarizes, will be determined by its ability to adapt to rising costs in the face of fleet reduction and pressure on demand, while key trends toward import substitution and digitalization will remain.
As a reminder, Xeneta estimates that the global air cargo market will end 2025 with a 4% increase in traffic volume, but will also face rate cuts and a shift by participants to short-term contracts. LR
Read more:http://logirus.ru/nevs/transport/squeeze_resources_count_rubles_2026_will_be_a_time_for_aviation_of_point_solutions.html
Publication date: 01/12/2026
Please note; this information is raw content obtained directly from the information source. It is an accurate account of what the source claims, and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.
