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How do bankers see the dollar-to-ruble exchange rate in 2026?

The survey involved executives from 32 large Russian banks, six of which are considered systemically important financial institutions. According to the study's findings:

84% of respondents expect the dollar exchange rate to be between 80 and 100% in 2026; 56% of surveyed bankers believe the dollar will be quoted between 80 and 90 rubles; 9% of respondents expect the dollar exchange rate to be below 80 rubles; 4% of surveyed participants have an even more positive forecast – the dollar will cost less than 70 rubles; only 3% of experts budgeted for the dollar to be more than 100 rubles.

Incidentally, forecasts a year earlier were more pessimistic. For example, 62% of participants believed the dollar would exceed 100 rubles. Experts also had similar expectations for late 2025, but these forecasts were subsequently adjusted toward a stronger Russian ruble.

What's happening in the currency market at the end of March?

The US dollar exchange rate (according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation) as of March 24, 2026, is 81.8 rubles. The American currency reached its peak on March 20, approaching 85 rubles, but retreated in the following days. However, the weakening trend of the domestic currency continues due to the following factors:

A significant reduction in the supply of foreign currency on the domestic market, including the suspension of operations by the Ministry of Finance; volatility in the foreign exchange market due to the situation in the Middle East; a reduction in the key rate at the regulator's last meeting from 15.5% to 15%; and a significant federal budget deficit.

"The ruble has been weakening throughout March, but this trend won't last long. In the coming months, revenue from oil sales at a high price will begin to flow into the budget, which will support the exchange rate," the expert notes.

Analysts expect the ruble to strengthen as early as late March, as supply on the foreign exchange market will increase thanks to exporters facing the annual tax on raw materials production. Russians are urged not to give in to the hype and not to buy foreign currency: it's better to wait until May, when the ruble will strengthen and exchange rates will be more favorable.

10:30 03/24/2026

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Please note: This information is raw content obtained directly from the source. It represents an accurate account of the source's assertions and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

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What is the reason for the growing popularity of brokerage accounts?

Brokerage accounts are becoming increasingly attractive to Russian investors who want their savings to work and generate a stable income. The main reasons for this growing popularity include:

reduction of interest rates deposits against the backdrop of the easing of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation's policy, the average maximum yield will be reached in May 2025 deposits The annual interest rate exceeded 19.5%, falling below 14.5% in February 2026. The possibility of receiving tax deductions when opening and adding funds to an individual investment account (IIS), which increases the profitability of such investments. Increased interest in long-term savings – interest rates on long-term deposits are extremely unfavorable, forcing conservative investors to seek alternatives. The ease of opening brokerage accounts – many banks offer this service, including online, and the effort is comparable to opening a traditional deposit.

While investment accounts were previously aimed at experienced market participants, the product is now suitable for beginners as well. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is implementing a public literacy project called "Financial Navigator," and the Moscow Exchange and a number of banks also offer similar investment courses.

How has the Russian investment market changed in 2025?

Last year, money steadily flowed from deposits to brokerage accounts. Analysts estimate that by the end of 2025:

The net inflow of funds from individuals into brokerage accounts exceeded ₽2.5 trillion; the total volume of funds held by Russians in such accounts increased by 16% over the year, reaching ₽12.3 trillion; more than 70% of the capital was contributed by qualified investors, i.e., market participants with large assets or a relevant education; investment portfolios worth between 1 and 100 million rubles increased by 20%; in the small portfolio segment (from 10,000 to 1 million rubles), the annual growth was 12%; the average account balance remained unchanged at 2.2 million rubles.

"OFZs account for about 40% of portfolios. At the beginning of the year, investors were also interested in stocks, but given the complex geopolitical situation, such investments would have been considered excessively risky," the expert stated.

Investment accounts will remain popular in 2026, especially if the key rate continues to decline. Bonds remain the focus, but the trend could shift: funds will begin to flow into stocks if there are prospects for improved international conditions, sanctions easing, and the end of the IMF.

15:25 03/17/2026

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Please note: This information is raw content obtained directly from the source. It represents an accurate account of the source's assertions and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

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Why are major banks advocating for changes to call labeling regulations?

Outgoing call labeling is a legal requirement aimed at combating fraud and spam. Since September 1st of last year, businesses making bulk calls have been required to enter into paid contracts with telecom operators, with subscribers having the right to refuse such calls. The current requirements have not been met with satisfaction. banks, who identified several problems associated with the implementation of the labeling law:

Not all calls made by banks are mass calls; most are personalized; telecom operators have been granted the right to block any calls unless the bank has signed a contract with them; criteria for defining mass calls are not established by law, which leads to abuse by operators; the rate of 0.25 rubles for each call, including unsuccessful ones, is excessive.

Banks' key complaint is the high cost of call labeling services, which forces businesses to pay not just for the call itself, but even for the attempt to reach the client.

What rules for mass calls are banks proposing to implement?

Major Russian banks are proposing a change to their approach to call labeling. The relevant requirements are outlined in a package of amendments to the "Antifraud 2.0" bill. Specifically, the proposals include:

Create an exception for mass calls made in compliance with regulatory requirements—labeling will not be required for these calls; eliminate the possibility of telecom operators obtaining unjustified economic benefits; and establish an alternative method for labeling calls—through the centralized Antifraud platform.

"This initiative doesn't stand up to scrutiny—banks are looking for a loophole to circumvent the ban on spam calls by offering to treat themselves like government agencies," T2 operator noted.

Telecom operators rejected the initiative, believing that such an approach would lead to chaos and lack of transparency in the industry. Banks were accused of trying to sell their products at any cost, even if the client had opted out of mass calls. The proposal will be considered during the second reading of the "Antifraud 2.0" bill.

09:00 03/10/2026

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Please note: This information is raw content obtained directly from the source. It represents an accurate account of the source's assertions and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

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What changes have the greatest impact on the work of microfinance organizations?

Concerned about the high debt burden of the population, the Bank of Russia has been implementing reforms in the microfinance sector for several years. The most significant changes affect microfinance organizations in 2025 and 2026:

In 2025, restrictions on issuing loans to microfinance organizations will be tightened loans Clients with high debt burdens; a "cooling-off period" has been introduced for loan and credit applications—this change affects both banks and microfinance organizations (MFOs); starting in 2026, the approach to assessing borrowers' solvency has changed—MFOs can no longer rely on credit history; clients must request proof of income; starting March 1, remote loan issuance is only possible using biometrics—this measure is intended to help combat fraud; starting in April of this year, the maximum overpayment on a microloan will be 100% of the debt amount (currently, the limit is 130%); in October, the rule of issuing one loan per client is planned to begin—lending will initially be limited to clients with two active contracts.

Overall, the industry is seeing a trend toward stricter regulation. However, microfinance companies are attempting to circumvent legal provisions. For example, marketplaces have been caught substituting concepts: instead of a loan agreement with a client, they issue an agency agreement. Such a transaction is possible even if a self-imposed loan ban has been established through Gosuslugi.

How is the microfinance services market undergoing a transformation?

Tighter regulations and the introduction of increased surcharges have led to a contraction of microloan portfolios in microfinance organizations. Thus, in 2025, microfinance companies reported the following performance results:

The total loan portfolio of microfinance organizations decreased by 1.1% in the fourth quarter; the portfolio of companies issuing loans offline decreased by 7.2% over the same period, and by 10.4% over the year; new loans from microfinance organizations began to be issued more frequently – in the fourth quarter, the increase was 6.4%, over the year – more than 11%, the value of such agreements was 380 billion rubles; a decline was also observed in the banking microfinance organization segment – the decline over the quarter exceeded 3.2%.

"The microfinance services market is undergoing a transformation—MFIs are trying to adapt to legislative changes and are choosing clients with great caution," experts note.

The microloan segment is expected to experience a traditional seasonal lull in the first months of 2026. However, analysts also predict a decline by mid-year, largely due to the requirement to use biometrics when reviewing client applications. To avoid this requirement, many microfinance institutions (MFIs) are changing their status to microcredit credit companies (MCCs): for the latter, mandatory biometrics will only be introduced in March 2027, allowing businesses a brief grace period.

09:35 03.03.2026

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Please note: This information is raw content obtained directly from the source. It represents an accurate account of the source's assertions and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

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What is known about the new "special situations" fund?

The fund that is being created Alfa-Bank and A1 (a company specializing in distressed assets) are planning to launch a fund for investments in "special situations." A1's management revealed some details of the project:

The investment amount will be up to 30 billion rubles; the key investment vector is "distressed assets"; the investment horizon is up to three years; Alfa-Bank will be the anchor investor, A1 will seek partners, and Alfa-Capital will handle management.

"Companies facing difficult situations will be given a chance for a new lease on life. The fund will help resolve disputes, achieve settlements, and achieve profitability," the project's authors note.

However, A1's activities in this area have been repeatedly criticized. Businesses have criticized its methods and complained of corporate raiding attempts. A1 is a creditor of Viktor Baturin, who is suing his sister (the widow of former Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov).

What assets do A1 and Alfa-Bank plan to acquire?

The list of assets that the "special situations" fund will work with includes companies experiencing serious problems, including:

Conflicts between capital owners and management; increased debt burden; ineffective business management; falling under sanctions; the departure of Western owners amid the imposed restrictions.

One of our key areas of activity is working with Russian companies owned by foreign partners. Given the challenging geopolitical situation, such businesses often lose their ability to effectively conduct business, and this new project will help them stay afloat and continue their productive work.

10:00 02/24/2026

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Please note: This information is raw content obtained directly from the source. It represents an accurate account of the source's assertions and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

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Why does the state nationalize private assets?

Analysts note a trend toward the transfer of ownership from private owners to the state. Business nationalization is occurring for the following reasons:

When company owners commit corruption-related crimes; when businesses violate legal requirements regarding the participation of foreign companies in strategic business segments; when asset owners are accused of extremism or terrorism; when business owners commit other crimes, such as illegal capital withdrawal and bankruptcy.

"Previously concluded property privatization transactions are not subject to revision—the nationalization of assets is being carried out on the basis of criminal acts committed at the present time," the head of the Supreme Court noted.

Property nationalization transactions in 2025 took up more than 27% of the market

What were the largest business nationalization deals in 2025?

Key Deals in the M Market

A group of Far Eastern fishing companies worth over $4 billion, owned by the "crab king" Kan; the Yuzhuralzoloto group of companies, whose assets were seized by the state; the IT company Lesta, whose owners were accused of extremism; and Domodedovo Airport, the seizure of which from its foreign owner was linked to the need to ensure the defense and security of the state.

In addition, in the M market

14:45 02/17/2026

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Please note: This information is raw content obtained directly from the source. It represents an accurate account of the source's assertions and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

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Sovcombank Press Service

Sovcombank confirmed its status as a leader in the financial market and strengthened its position among the country's most reliable banks by winning the 20th anniversary "Financial Elite of Russia" Award in two key categories: "Reliability" and "Innovative Development." The awards ceremony took place on February 11 at the reception hall of the Main Directorate of the Pension Fund of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Experts and the professional community noted the bank's financial stability, transparency, and high level of business reputation and trust.

These two awards reflect the bank's balanced strategy: a long-standing business reputation and financial stability go hand in hand with technological leadership. Innovation at Sovcombank has long ceased to be a separate area – it has become the foundation of the business. A systematic approach to development enables the implementation of cutting-edge technologies, making them accessible to both large corporations and private clients.

The scale of the business, financial stability, and reputation built over many years of operation form the foundation of trust that is projected for decades to come.

"Thank you to the jury for their high praise and attention to our work. A special thank you to our clients. You are our greatest inspirations. Your ambitious goals drive us to constantly seek new solutions and stay one step ahead. And our most important focus is our team. You guys are geniuses and drivers of progress! Thank you for every breakthrough, for believing that no problem is unsolvable. This award is a testament to our shared success!" said Andrey Panarin, Managing Director of Sovcombank's Corporate and Investment Business Development Department.

*Sovcombank is included in the list of systemically important credit institutions of the Russian Federation (data from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, 07.10.2025). The Bank's credit ratings: Expert RA – ruAA, stable; ACRA – AA, stable; NCR – AA, stable.

PJSC "Sovcombank", TIN 4401116480, ID a-485 erid: F7NfYUJCUneTUxGwCLXA

19:30 02/12/2026

Source: Sovcombank Press Service

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Sovcombank Press Service

In the "Best Service for Unauthorized Clients in Digital Channels" category, Sovcombank was recognized by Naumen for its accessibility of information and convenient transition from information to registration. In the "Operational CX Leader" category, DMGlobal recognized the bank for the efficiency of its internal processes, sophisticated automation of client scenarios, and channel integration.

"Real service is when you don't notice the technology, but feel only care. We're changing our approach: every click should be based not just on an algorithm, but on personal responsibility to the client. We're actively developing this area so you can feel the support of specific people, even on digital channels. Market recognition confirms that we're on the right track. Becoming a leading bank isn't about market share, but about your peace of mind," comments Ilya Radaev, Head of Customer Experience at Sovcombank.

CX Digital

The assessment covered the entire customer journey. At the acquisition stage, visibility across digital channels, ease of navigation, information completeness, and conversion of initial interest into a request were analyzed. At the purchase stage, the ease of product registration, from selecting terms to confirmation, was assessed. At the support stage, the speed and quality of service via voice channels, chats, and AI-powered assistants were assessed. At the retention stage, the level of personalization of offers, transparency of terms, ease of product management, and public feedback management were assessed. The study relied on data from more than 25 touchpoints and over 200 metrics.

erid: F7NfYUJCUneTUx3r8MD7

11:00 02/05/2026

Source: Sovcombank Press Service

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Why won't the Central Bank of the Russian Federation limit acquiring fees?

The Bank of Russia sees no reason to limit fees for acquiring services. The regulator conducted a study and concluded that the measure does not improve the structure of the payments market or affect prices for end consumers. Therefore, even with the restrictions in place, price reductions in stores are not expected.

"The Bank of Russia will continue to develop payment services and instruments, creating conditions for fair competition and reducing the cost of banking services," the regulator noted.

Another reason for abandoning the fee cap is that such a measure would only redistribute income from banks to small businesses. As a reminder, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has previously capped banking service fees: in 2020 amid the pandemic and in 2022 due to the onset of the economic crisis.

What is the reason for the increase in the cost of banking services in 2026?

Discussion about supporting small businesses by limiting acquiring fees began in January 2026, prompted by the implementation of tax reform, which primarily impacted small and medium-sized businesses. Thus, the authorities introduced the following measures:

The limits for the preferential tax regimes of the simplified tax system (STS) and patent tax system (PTS) have been revised; the VAT rate has been increased from 20% to 22%; the VAT exemption for banking operations has been abolished; and taxation has been introduced for banking operations and services, including account maintenance, card issuance, PIN code changes, etc.

Tighter taxation conditions have already led some entrepreneurs to abandon their operations, while others have begun raising prices. As a result, the changes could trigger a new round of inflation and prompt the Central Bank of Russia to return to its policy of raising the key interest rate.

09:00 02/03/2026

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Please note: This information is raw content obtained directly from the source. It represents an accurate account of the source's assertions and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

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Why was there an increase in cash in circulation in 2025?

The increased demand for cash comes as no surprise to the industry. Russians are showing interest in this payment method for several reasons:

Internet problems – outages and disconnections are being reported amid air raid sirens, preventing card and app payments; the introduction of additional transaction controls – amid numerous stories of card and account blocking, Russians prefer cash; a reduction in the key rate – the yield on deposits and savings accounts is declining, making bank savings products less attractive to investors.

Another factor is seasonality, as the highest demand for cash was recorded in December of last year. In the lead-up to the holidays, citizens receive bonuses and additional payments, which they plan to spend. Furthermore, Russians are reluctant to keep their money in the bank during the long New Year holidays, when most branches are closed.

How did the outflow of funds from banks into cash take place?

In the first half of 2025, Russians preferred to keep their money in bank accounts, driven by favorable terms amid a high key interest rate. This trend reversed in June, as the regulator began easing monetary policy. The largest outflow of funds (836 billion rubles) was recorded in December. This is the highest level in 11 years; a higher figure (918 billion rubles) was recorded only in 2014.

"The temporary increase in cash in circulation does not pose any negative consequences for the economy, but overall, the trend increases risks for the banking industry," the regulator noted.

By the end of 2025, the total volume of cash in circulation was estimated to exceed 19.4 trillion rubles. Meanwhile, the share of cash payments in the Russian economy remains near its historical low: around 14% of total transactions. However, this situation may change in the future, and Russians will increasingly prefer cash payments.

16:00 01/27/2026

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Please note: This information is raw content obtained directly from the source. It represents an accurate account of the source's assertions and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.