Translation. Region: Russian Federation –
Source: People's Republic of China in Russian – People's Republic of China in Russian –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
Source: People's Republic of China – State Council News
Moscow/Kyiv, February 25 (Xinhua) — February 24 marked exactly four years since the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis. Currently, a low-intensity, trench war of attrition has unfolded between Russia and Ukraine. At the negotiating table, the two sides have intensified contacts and are focused on resolving the most difficult issues.
The door to dialogue has finally opened. Will this be a turning point in the four-year-long conflict?
SITUATION ON THE BATTLEFIELD
Military experts believe the situation on the conflict fronts is characterized by "positional battles with varying success" and "high-intensity attrition." The Russian side generally maintains a certain advantage, but is finding it difficult to reverse the situation.
Russian troops are advancing "steadily but slowly" toward their strategic objectives. According to Russian military observer Nikita Yurchenko, a number of significant battles took place last year, resulting in the Russian side regaining control of the entire Kursk region, capturing a key Ukrainian stronghold in the Kharkiv region (the city of Kupyansk), and establishing control over the city of Krasnoarmeysk (Ukrainian name: Pokrovsk).
Ukraine, for its part, has increased the number of long-range strikes. According to Ukrainian military experts, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are striking Russian military and energy facilities, with the strike zone expanding further into the country, which is producing some results. According to Russian Defense Ministry reports, Russia shoots down between 1,000 and 2,000 Ukrainian UAVs weekly, while simultaneously striking Ukrainian logistics facilities, including energy infrastructure.
Russian and Ukrainian experts believe that, compared to the previous three years, the fighting in 2025 was characterized by the absence of Ukrainian ground offensives comparable in scale to Russia's. However, at critical moments, the Ukrainian side managed to conserve manpower, generally holding the front line. The situation on the battlefield remained tense and uncertain.
For Ukraine, the biggest battlefield uncertainty will likely be military aid from the US and Europe. Western experts note that, although Ukraine's military-industrial potential is rapidly growing, the Donald Trump administration is attempting to distance itself from the conflict and press for negotiations. European military aid to Ukraine is becoming uncertain due to a "lack of funds" and internal disagreements, increasing military pressure on Kyiv.
THE SCALE OF ECONOMIC DEPRESSION
Some media outlets have noted that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has turned into a "war of attrition" and an "economic war of attrition." The protracted conflict is negatively impacting the economy, social sphere, and living standards in Russia, Ukraine, and the region as a whole.
The Russian economy is clearly under pressure from Western sanctions, but it is also demonstrating a certain resilience. According to Kommersant, Russia's foreign trade turnover in 2025 will decline compared to 2021, with exports to European countries significantly reduced.
Against a backdrop of slowing growth and declining trade, Russia is intensifying efforts to develop new markets, while the role of the private sector is growing, and the economy is demonstrating a certain adaptability in the face of turbulence. Russian analyst Aslan Nakhushev notes that the lives of most Russians are currently unaffected by the fighting at the front.
The economic situation in Ukraine is seriously affected by the ongoing fighting. According to the World Bank, the protracted conflict pushed the country's poverty rate to 36.9 percent last year, significantly higher than pre-conflict levels. According to a joint report by the World Bank, the European Commission, the UN, and the Ukrainian government dated February 23, direct damage to Ukraine from the conflict by the end of 2025 exceeded $195 billion, and post-war reconstruction will require nearly $588 billion over 10 years, approximately three times the country's GDP last year.
One of the main problems for Ukraine is debt. The International Monetary Fund previously predicted that Ukraine's public debt would amount to approximately 108.6 percent of GDP in 2025. According to estimates by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine and Ukrainian experts, this ratio will remain unchanged for the next two years. This means that all the hryvnias earned by Ukrainians will not be enough to even service the debt. In 2026, Ukraine's state budget deficit will amount to 1.9 trillion hryvnias (approximately $45 billion). Clearly, Ukraine will need loans and assistance, particularly from the EU, to maintain economic and social stability.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is also having an impact on the European economy. On the one hand, aid to Ukraine not only creates a long-term burden on the EU budget but also exacerbates internal divisions within the union. On the other hand, the "energy decoupling" with Russia has led to rising energy prices in Europe. Security concerns, economic weakness, and polarized public opinion are dragging Europe into an even deeper crisis.
THE PATH TO PEACE NEGOTIATIONS
Since the beginning of 2026, three rounds of negotiations involving delegations from Russia, the United States, and Ukraine have taken place. A new round of trilateral meetings may take place on February 27. Negotiators have begun to focus on the real problems of the Ukrainian crisis, and the door has finally opened for dialogue on resolving the Ukrainian crisis.
Russian and Ukrainian experts believe that the prospects of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations depend on three key factors.
First, there is the "difficulty of reaching a rapprochement" on key issues. Territory and security guarantees are the two main stumbling blocks in the negotiations. Russia insists on incorporating the entire Donbas, while Ukraine refuses to unilaterally withdraw its troops from there. Ukraine demands a ceasefire conditional on security guarantees with Western participation, while Russia cannot accept the deployment of Western military personnel and facilities in Ukraine.
Secondly, the "insincerity" of US mediation. As some Russian and Ukrainian experts have noted, US pressure to advance negotiations is more like "posturing." By supporting the negotiations, the US keeps the conflict relatively manageable. On the one hand, the American side retains strategic leverage over Russia, Ukraine, and Europe by strengthening sanctions and increasing military aid. On the other hand, this brings enormous benefits to the American military-industrial complex.
Third, there are "conflicting trends" in public opinion in Russia and Ukraine. The Ukrainian population displays a mixed mood: conflict fatigue combines with pessimism regarding the prospects for negotiations. A poll conducted by Ukrainian sociological services late last year showed that over 52 percent of Ukrainians believe the overall situation will not improve by 2026. Many Ukrainians do not believe a lasting ceasefire is possible, mistrust US promises of guarantees, and doubt Russia's ability to comply with agreements. Ultimately, they conclude that only continued confrontation will resolve the issue permanently. Meanwhile, a poll published in February by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) showed that support for a special military operation among Russians stands at 65 percent. This polarization of public sentiment increases pressure on both governments during the negotiations.
Analysts believe that four years after the conflict began, Russia and Ukraine continue to engage in a contest of military, economic, and diplomatic endurance. But without dialogue, there is no peace. Currently, negotiations are not only an opportunity but also a test of political will and wisdom on all sides.
Please note: This information is raw content obtained directly from the source. It represents an accurate account of the source's assertions and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.
