Translation. Region: Russian Federation –
Source: Mainfin Bank –
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Image: mainfin.ru
How do bankers see the dollar-to-ruble exchange rate in 2026?
The survey involved executives from 32 large Russian banks, six of which are considered systemically important financial institutions. According to the study's findings:
84% of respondents expect the dollar exchange rate to be between 80 and 100% in 2026; 56% of surveyed bankers believe the dollar will be quoted between 80 and 90 rubles; 9% of respondents expect the dollar exchange rate to be below 80 rubles; 4% of surveyed participants have an even more positive forecast – the dollar will cost less than 70 rubles; only 3% of experts budgeted for the dollar to be more than 100 rubles.
Incidentally, forecasts a year earlier were more pessimistic. For example, 62% of participants believed the dollar would exceed 100 rubles. Experts also had similar expectations for late 2025, but these forecasts were subsequently adjusted toward a stronger Russian ruble.
What's happening in the currency market at the end of March?
The US dollar exchange rate (according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation) as of March 24, 2026, is 81.8 rubles. The American currency reached its peak on March 20, approaching 85 rubles, but retreated in the following days. However, the weakening trend of the domestic currency continues due to the following factors:
A significant reduction in the supply of foreign currency on the domestic market, including the suspension of operations by the Ministry of Finance; volatility in the foreign exchange market due to the situation in the Middle East; a reduction in the key rate at the regulator's last meeting from 15.5% to 15%; and a significant federal budget deficit.
"The ruble has been weakening throughout March, but this trend won't last long. In the coming months, revenue from oil sales at a high price will begin to flow into the budget, which will support the exchange rate," the expert notes.
Analysts expect the ruble to strengthen as early as late March, as supply on the foreign exchange market will increase thanks to exporters facing the annual tax on raw materials production. Russians are urged not to give in to the hype and not to buy foreign currency: it's better to wait until May, when the ruble will strengthen and exchange rates will be more favorable.
10:30 03/24/2026
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