Translation. Region: Russian Federation –
Source: Novosibirsk State University –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
The 2025-2026 flu season is very similar to the season of two years ago and differs significantly from last year's in its timing. The peak incidence this season was recorded approximately two months earlier than last year's. The dominant subtype of influenza A was the H3N2 subtype, while last season's flu was the H1N1 subtype. Sergei Netesov, Doctor of Biological Sciences, Professor, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Head of the Laboratory of Bionanotechnology, Microbiology, and Virology at the Faculty of Natural Sciences at Novosibirsk State University, commented on the situation.
— Almost all the forecasts for the current epidemic season have already come to pass. A slight increase in flu cases is expected in Siberian regions in the near future, but the peak is behind us. According to the A.A. Smorodintsev Influenza Research Institute, this peak was recorded in weeks 51-52 of last year. This was followed by a sharp decline. This trend continued until weeks 1-2 of this year, after which a resurgence was observed, but certainly not as significant as at the end of last year. The decline in cases during the New Year holidays is natural—healthcare facilities are not operating at full capacity, many patients do not have to go to work, and they do not need to provide sick leave, so only a fraction of cases are officially registered. This decline has given way to a slight resurgence, which is still ongoing in some regions, and is expected to be followed by a further decline. A resurgence in flu cases is not expected in the spring of this epidemic season. At the same time, the proportion of diseases caused by viruses other than the influenza virus is growing: adenoviruses, respiratory syncytial virus, and common coronaviruses, so it’s too early to rest on our laurels.
Looking at the incidence curve for the current epidemic season and the graph for the same period last year, we can see that they are identical, but they occur in different periods. Last year, the peak incidence occurred in weeks 10-12 of 2025. It's worth noting that the previous epidemic season was unique due to this shift in incidence. The current epidemic season has returned to the traditional timing typical of previous years.
The hospitalization curves for patients with a clinical diagnosis of influenza in the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons are similar. However, the peak reached in the current epidemic season is significantly higher than last year's.
The main causative agent of the disease remains the influenza A virus subtype H3N2. Vaccination, as always, is an effective preventative measure, but it's too late now. The best time to get vaccinated is September and October, when people will be protected from this virus before the peak in cases, which typically occurs in mid-November and December. I believe vaccination is absolutely essential every two to three years, and for the elderly and patients in high-risk groups—those with diabetes, organ transplant recipients, those with serious chronic diseases, and those with immunodeficiency—it should be done annually.
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