Translation. Region: Russian Federation –
Source: United Nations – United Nations –
An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
January 15, 2026 Economic development
According to preliminary data, 2025 will be a record year for global trade, with its volume increasing by 7 percent and exceeding $35 trillion for the first time. Growth is expected to continue in 2026, but at a slower pace.
The first UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) review of the year describes an increasingly complex and fragmented global environment. Geopolitical tensions, restructuring of supply chains, accelerating digital and green transitions, and tightening regulations are reshaping trade flows and global value chains.
Below are some of the key trends that UNCTAD experts predict will shape global trade in 2026.
Slowing global growth is hitting developing economies.
Global economic growth in 2026 is projected to remain subdued at 2.6 percent. In developing countries (excluding China), it will slow to 4.2 percent.
Major economies are also losing momentum:
US: Growth will slow to 1.5 percent from 1.8 percent in 2025. China: Growth is expected to reach 4.6 percent, down from 5 percent a year earlier. Europe: Government stimulus will provide limited support to the economy, but demand will remain moderate.
Slower growth weakens export demand, tightens financial conditions, and increases vulnerability to external shocks. Developing countries will need to strengthen regional trade, diversification, and digital integration to build resilience.
Tariffs increase uncertainty
In 2026, governments are expected to continue using tariffs for protectionism and strategic pressure. Their use increased sharply in 2025, particularly in manufacturing, including in the wake of US measures.
Tariffs undermine trade even before they are actually imposed:
Rising costs weaken demand and shift supply sources; policy instability constrains investment and long-term planning.
The service sector is becoming a growth driver, widening the digital divide.
Services already account for 27 percent of global trade, and are expected to grow by about 9 percent in 2025, significantly outpacing trade in goods.
Digitalization accelerates this process, but at the same time widens the gap:
Digitally delivered services account for 56 percent of global services exports; in developed countries, their share reaches 61 percent; in the least developed countries, only 16 percent, highlighting the scale of inequality.
At the same time, new barriers are emerging due to tightening digital trade regulations. Bridging the digital divide—through infrastructure, skills development, and supportive regulation—will be key to developing countries' participation in the fastest-growing segment of global trade.
The environmental agenda is increasingly influencing trade
Environmental priorities are increasingly shaping global trade trends as climate commitments move toward practical implementation. Clean energy technology markets could reach $640 billion annually by 2030.
Meanwhile, by the end of 2025, prices for key clean energy minerals were 18-39 percent below their 2021-2022 peaks due to oversupply, slowing battery demand, and technological changes reducing the need for raw materials.
Despite falling prices, supply risks remain. Export restrictions are tightening, including measures on cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo and rare earth elements in China. In response, countries are increasing stockpiles and entering into bilateral agreements, increasing the risk of value chain fragmentation.
Navigating a fragmented trading environment
Among the key trends and developments in 2026, UNCTAD also highlights: pressure on global trade rules in the run-up to the World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference, the reshaping of global value chains, increased trade between countries in the Global South, climate risks and security threats to agricultural trade, and increased government regulation.
As these processes unfold, timely data, analysis, and policy support will be key. UNCTAD will continue to monitor these developments and help countries navigate the new environment, manage risks, and identify opportunities in an increasingly fragmented global trading environment.
Please note: This information is raw content obtained directly from the source. It represents an accurate account of the source's assertions and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.