Translation. Region: Russian Federation –
Source: Mainfin Bank –
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What risks of economic slowdown has the Bank of Russia identified?
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation published a financial stability review for the period from April to September of this year. The Russian economy is slowing under the influence of monetary easing. Several financial sector issues remain pressing:
The imbalance in the Russian currency market has stabilized, with the dollar-to-ruble exchange rate volatility not exceeding 4.4% over the past month, compared to 9.7% just six months ago. Commercial banks' interest rate risks are also declining, as financial institutions have increasingly begun offering depositors products with floating rates tied to the key rate. Credit risk is the most influential factor, with the regulator seeing potential for an increase in problem debt.
The Bank of Russia has noted an economic slowdown; by September, GDP growth had fallen to 0.6% year-on-year, compared to over 1.1% mid-year. Experts are calling the current economic stage "technical stagnation."
How will credit risks for businesses and individuals change in 2025?
The easing of monetary policy has led to improved terms for credit products, and borrowers' demand for funds has begun to recover. However, the increase in debt is associated with credit risks:
The share of corporate borrowers with problematic obligations in October amounted to 8%, which is slightly less than the level of April; the share of corporate borrowers that are in the yellow zone, i.e. have a high level of risk, increased by 4% (among large companies – 18%, medium – 28%); the share of overdue loans of large companies increased by 0.2% (to 4%) – this mainly affected the portfolio of the construction and oil and gas industries; in the portfolio of loans to private clients, the share of problematic agreements amounted to almost 13%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over the six months; the highest level of delinquency is among clients with a debt burden above 50%, such borrowers account for 19% of issued loans.
"In the fall, Russians began to more actively seek loan restructuring—the share of applications increased by 79%, which may indicate difficulties with servicing contracts," the Bank of Russia noted.
At the same time, experts don't expect a boom in the credit sector – companies maintain sufficient financial strength, and their debt burdens will continue to decline. It's possible that the regulator will have to further tighten lending requirements for clients with high DTIs. In retail, the share of non-performing loans is expected to increase in 2026, but a surge in defaults is not expected amid low unemployment.
16:32 02.12.2025
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