Translation. Region: Russian Federation –
Source: United Nations – United Nations –
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March 31, 2026 Peace and security
The military escalation in the Middle East, now in its fifth week, could lead to a significant setback in socio-economic development in Arab countries. This is the main conclusion of a report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), presented on Tuesday in Amman, Jordan.
According to preliminary estimates by UNDP experts, the region risks losing between 3.7 and 6 percent of its total GDP, or $120–194 billion. This amount exceeds the entire economic growth achieved in the Arab region by 2025. At the same time, unemployment could rise by four percentage points, equivalent to the loss of 3.6 million jobs. Up to four million people could fall below the poverty line.
The authors of the UNDP analytical report emphasize that even a short-term conflict can cause “profound and widespread socio-economic consequences that will persist for a long time.”
The most severe macroeconomic losses are projected for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, where high dependence on trade and energy markets makes the economies particularly vulnerable. In this subregion, the decline in GDP could reach 5.2–8.7 percent.
The sharpest increase in poverty—by five percent—is expected in the Eastern Mediterranean, where an additional 2.85–3.3 million people could find themselves without means of subsistence. This would account for more than 75 percent of the total increase in poverty in the region.
In the least developed Arab countries, the impact will also be significant, given the low baseline resilience of their economies. In North Africa, the potential impact of the conflict is assessed as moderate.
According to Abdallah Al-Dardari, Director of the UNDP Regional Bureau for the Arab States, the crisis should serve as a signal for a rethinking of development strategies in the Middle East. He emphasized the need to diversify the economy, strengthen logistics, and expand partnerships to reduce vulnerability to potential shocks and conflicts.
The UNDP also warned of a decline in the Human Development Index: a 0.2–0.4 percent drop is expected for the region as a whole, corresponding to a setback of six months or even a year. In the Gulf countries, the decline could be even more significant—up to two years of development.
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