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Source: People's Republic of China – State Council News
BEIJING, March 12 (Xinhua) — With the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2026-2030) being reviewed at the fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC), China is entering a crucial five-year period during which it aims to implement an ambitious program to modernize its vast population by 2035 on a scale unprecedented in human history.
According to China's draft development plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan, the country aims to lay a solid foundation to achieve its goal of doubling its per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 to more than US$20,000 by 2035, which is typical of a moderately developed country.
The future prospect is that by 2035, China's economic strength, scientific and technological potential, defense capability, aggregate national strength and international influence will have been significantly strengthened, people's lives will have become better and happier, and socialist modernization will have been basically realized.
Currently, fewer than 30 countries and regions in the world have achieved the level of modernization, while their combined population does not exceed 1 billion people, including the UK with about 70 million people and the US with about 340 million, which is much smaller than China's population of 1.4 billion.
China's vast population poses a significant challenge. However, the country is determined to ensure that all its residents can benefit from development.
Over the next five years, China plans to increase average life expectancy to 80 years, boost the number of practicing doctors to 3.7 per 1,000 people, and raise the urbanization rate, measured as the number of people permanently residing in cities and towns, to 71 percent, among other goals, according to the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan.
Experts believe that achieving these goals will be far from easy, especially given the severe resource constraints the country faces.
Due to its huge population, China lags significantly behind the global average in terms of arable land area, water resources, and crude oil per capita. Furthermore, demographic challenges associated with declining birth rates and a rapidly aging population are placing additional strain on the country's modernization process.
China's unique realities mean there are virtually no historical precedents to follow.
Instead of adopting modernization models developed by Western economies, China should forge its own path, addressing problems through policies and practices tailored to its unique conditions, says Fu Zheng, a scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
FOCUS ON HIGH QUALITY
At the core of this path is the pursuit of high-quality development based on a new development concept, i.e., the concept of innovative, coordinated, green, open and inclusive development, which is among the guiding principles set out in the draft plan.
Over the next five years, China will increase its overall research and development spending by an average of more than 7 percent per year and boost added value in key digital economy sectors to 12.5 percent of GDP, according to the draft guidelines for the 15th Five-Year Plan.
The transition to a green economy will also accelerate in the period 2026–2030, with the aim of reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 17% compared to 2025 levels and increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to 25% by the end of this period.
“China’s modernization will lead to increased efficiency, technological innovation, and green growth,” said Jiang Haoran, Chairman of Cashway Fintech Co., Ltd.
"This means a fundamental change in the drivers of growth, moving away from the old model of resource-intensive expansion to a more sustainable path," said Wang Pu, a professor at the Beijing University of Technology.
China's pursuit of high-quality development aims to comprehensively improve the living standards of its citizens, a challenging task for any country with such a large population.
The draft plan outlined specific goals, including achieving a total grain production volume of 725 million tons by 2030 and implementing urban renewal programs aimed at improving living conditions. During this period, further modernization of infrastructure, such as electricity supply, high-speed rail, and telecommunications networks, is also planned to ensure sufficient electricity, more convenient transportation, and faster communications.
China's vast population can be a powerful source of impetus, providing a vast talent pool and abundant opportunities for technological innovation, as well as fostering a vibrant domestic market that will promote balanced trade and coordinated development. According to the new development concept, all of this will help the economy become more resilient in an uncertain world.
The draft of the 15th Five-Year Plan's key provisions proposes a number of measures to make full use of this demographic advantage, especially against the backdrop of an aging and declining birth rate.
These measures, aimed at improving the population structure and increasing human capital, include strengthening support and incentives for fertility, more effectively aligning educational resources with demographic changes, and strengthening the elderly care sector.
"This will not only allow China's vast domestic market to fully unleash its potential, but also provide a powerful impetus to technological innovation," said Zhang Shuibo, an NPC deputy and professor at Tianjin University.
BENEFIT FOR THE WHOLE WORLD
Once China succeeds in modernizing its massive population, the proportion of humanity that has achieved modernization will more than double, from about one-seventh to about one-third of the world's population, giving a powerful boost to global development.
Notably, its super-large domestic market is expected to create a sustainable impetus for the global economy.
China is already the world's second-largest import market, and its growing middle-income population means demand still has room to grow, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao said, noting that China is actively opening up its vast market and will promote balanced trade by increasing imports while stabilizing exports.
Foreign companies are particularly excited about the vast opportunities the Chinese market offers.
Toy giant LEGO Group said it was increasing its presence in the Chinese market as part of a long-term investment strategy, while aircraft maker Airbus also expressed a strong commitment, saying China's aviation market had huge potential.
For developing countries striving for prosperity and development, China's experience serves as a practical guide, demonstrating that modernization does not necessarily have to follow a single template. Instead, countries can choose development paths determined by their own circumstances, priorities, and stages of development.
“Through a people-centered approach, this strikes a balance between inclusiveness and sustainability in the modernization of the population, reflecting China’s unique value orientations and governance wisdom, while also facilitating the integration of Chinese solutions into the global modernization process,” said Darren Smith, a professor at Loughborough University in the UK and a fellow of the British Academy of Social Sciences. -0-
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