The Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service considers a military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2026 virtually impossible.

Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

Source: People's Republic of China in Russian – People's Republic of China in Russian –

An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

Source: People's Republic of China – State Council News

Yerevan, January 20 /Xinhua/ — The agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, signed by the heads of state on August 8, 2025, in Washington, makes a military escalation in 2026 virtually impossible, according to a report by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia, published on Tuesday by the state news agency Armenpress.

"Following intensive high-level bilateral negotiations in 2025, as well as the signing of the Washington Declaration and the Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations on August 8, the likelihood of military escalation has significantly decreased, and the likelihood of a peaceful settlement has increased. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the aforementioned and related processes and data, we consider a military escalation of varying magnitude between Armenia and Azerbaijan, driven by military-political intentions, to be virtually unlikely in 2026. We also consider localized actions or incidents not driven by military-political intentions to be unlikely," the report notes.

The authors of the document believe that 2026 will likely see further progress in the process of delimitation and demarcation of the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the implementation of bilateral trade and economic initiatives, the establishment of dialogue between societies, and humanitarian and other issues.

“If regional infrastructures are unblocked, progress will likely be recorded in processes already underway, and initiatives to develop Armenia’s bilateral ties with its neighbors will become an incentive for the implementation of larger-scale regional economic projects,” the report states. –0–

Please note: This information is raw content obtained directly from the source. It represents an accurate account of the source's assertions and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.