Translation. Region: Russian Federation –
Source: Central Bank of Russia
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The fourth one was published in 2025. number The Bank of Russia's scientific journal "Money and Credit." The authors of this issue examine how the debt burden is changing in various sectors of the Russian economy, propose new methods for assessing the deviation of GDP growth from potential, and construct macroeconomic forecasts based on central bank publications.
The debt burden channel is one of the important channels through which monetary policy influences the economy. However, the debt burden changes differently across different sectors following changes in the key rate. An analysis by Anna Pustovalova and her colleagues (Bank of Russia and Lomonosov Moscow State University) using Russian data shows, the debt burden of companies in the mining sector is most sensitive to the key rate hike. However, in the medium term, the debt burden level in most sectors remains unchanged in response to the key rate hike.
The deviation of GDP growth from potential, or the output gap, serves as a benchmark for assessing the economic situation, but this indicator itself cannot be measured directly. Ilya Zverev and Nadezhda Kislyak (Bank of Russia) offer Our own approach to assessing it based on 14 macroeconomic and financial indicators. The results obtained using this methodology for the period 2005–2022 allow us to better explain business cycle dynamics by analyzing the influence of individual factors. For example, in 2008, 2009, and 2020, external demand played a key role, while in 2022, domestic demand became the decisive factor.
Numerous studies show that the quality of forecasting macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation, can be improved by using text information—news, social media data, and other similar channels. Urmat Dzhunkeev (MDigital) offers A forecasting approach that incorporates sentiment indices of central bank publications (news, monetary policy decisions, etc.) into traditional econometric and neural network models. The author finds that traditional methods are more accurate in forecasting Russia's GDP, but a synthesis of model forecasts that incorporate sentiment indices of central bank publications yields higher accuracy in forecasting inflation.
Read these and other articles published in the Money and Credit magazine, No. 4 for 2025. on the magazine's website.
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