Translation. Region: Russian Federation –
Source: Mainfin Bank –
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Image: mainfin.ru
What was the growth rate of consumer prices in Russia in mid-December?
Inflation in the country began to slow in December – prices rose by 0.05% in the first week of the month, and by 0.06% in the second. Since the beginning of the year, the increase has been approximately 5.4%. Compared to last year, inflation has slowed. According to the Central Bank, in December 2024, the price growth rate was 6.12%, and now it is 5.8%.
The Ministry of Economic Development also confirms this trend: in the first ten days of December, inflation slowed to 6.08% (compared to 6.34% a year earlier). However, experts agree that the slowdown in price growth is only temporary, driven by seasonal factors; it's too early to talk about the sustainability of this trend.
What will happen to inflation in Russia at the beginning of 2026?
The slowdown in price growth in December is a positive development, but inflation expectations remain high in the country. Price growth for goods and services is projected to accelerate in the first months of 2026, driven by several factors:
An increase in the VAT rate from 20 to 22%; the abolition of certain business benefits that reduce the tax burden; high borrowing activity among Russians; and a worsening budget deficit.
"The state budget for next year includes a key rate of 12-13% per annum, but the Central Bank of the Russian Federation believes the actual rate will exceed the forecast level: this contradiction calls into question the ability to fulfill budget plans," the pessimistic expert believes.
Moreover, at its most recent key rate meeting, the Central Bank of Russia noted that monetary policy in Russia will remain tight. The regulator is signaling the end of the rate cut cycle, and if inflation accelerates, the rate may even be revised upward. The next key rate decision will be made on February 13, 2026. The Central Bank expects inflation to fall below 5% next year.
15:30 12/23/2025
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