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Source: People's Republic of China in Russian – People's Republic of China in Russian –
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Source: People's Republic of China – State Council News
Tokyo, November 27 (Xinhua) — Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's understanding of China and Japan-China relations is seriously at odds with reality, and several of her recent actions have had a significant impact on bilateral relations. Hidetoshi Tashiro, chief economist at Japanese company Infinity LLC, stated this in a recent exclusive interview with Xinhua.
"If she doesn't change her behavior, it will deal a fundamental blow to the Japanese economy," he said.
H. Tashiro expressed deep concern over the behavior of S. Takaichi, who crossed China's red lines, which led to a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations.
He noted the close business ties between Tokyo and Beijing: Chinese goods contain components produced by Japanese companies, and some Japanese goods contain components that only Chinese companies can produce. For Japan, China has long been an economy from which it "cannot separate," the Japanese economist emphasized.
H. Tashiro stated that Japan and China's needs for each other are not equal, since Japan is more dependent on China, and the Chinese economy is almost five times larger than Japan's.
If trade and investment between the two countries were to cease completely, China would certainly be concerned. But for Japan, this would be much more than just a loss; it would be a matter of "life and death," the expert said.
He believes that Japan's tourism, retail, and film industries will be the first to suffer. Tourism and retail are important sources of employment in Japan, especially in sparsely populated areas that rely heavily on the economic benefits and employment opportunities associated with tourism.
He noted that Chinese tourists are not only the largest source of visitors to Japan but also possess high purchasing power. According to data published by the Japan Tourism Agency, tourists from mainland China and Hong Kong accounted for approximately 30 percent of Japan's total inbound tourism revenue in the first three quarters of this year.
"A sharp decline in the number of Chinese tourists will lead to huge losses for Japan's retail and tourism industries. Moreover, the outflow of Chinese tourists will also seriously impact the economies of the country's regions," said H. Tashiro.
"This could also impact the Japanese TV series industry in the future," he added. "Currently, Japanese television networks rely on sales in the Chinese market as a prerequisite for profitability when producing expensive series. If this [deterioration in relations] impacts series exports to China, the losses will be enormous."
The expert emphasized that the more serious risk of deterioration in Japan-China relations is related to the supply chain, noting that the supply chains of almost all Japanese industries are linked to China.
According to him, if these supply chains are disrupted, Japanese companies will find themselves in a difficult situation. If the dire situation persists, it could shake the foundations of the Japanese economy.
"The Chinese economy can survive without Japan, but the Japanese economy cannot exist without China. If S. Takaichi refuses to take back his words and continues his provocations, leaving hope for an improvement in Japan-China relations, this could impact business confidence going forward," stated H. Tashiro.
“If this continues, the Japanese economy could face a serious recession next year,” he warned. –0–
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