Translation. Region: Russian Federation –
Source: United Nations – United Nations –
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According to Mukhatzhanova, the global arms control architecture, which took decades to develop, is on the brink of collapse.
"The situation is very complex right now… Progress in multilateral efforts, in particular, has stalled because there's a kind of crisis of trust in a number of institutions. We're witnessing the disintegration of the arms control architecture that was built primarily through negotiations between the Soviet Union—and then Russia—and the United States," she said.
Threats to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Following the termination or withdrawal of several key agreements, only one remains in force: the agreement between the United States and Russia on limiting strategic nuclear weapons. However, New START expires in February 2026, and there is no prospect of developing a new agreement.
UN Photo/E. Schneider
Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, Director of the International Organizations and Non-Proliferation Program at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, speaks at a Security Council meeting on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation (archive).
“If nothing happens, we will find ourselves in a situation where nuclear states will be unable to show progress in implementing Article 6 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which obliges them to take measures to end the nuclear arms race and to strive for nuclear disarmament"," the expert emphasized, noting that this creates a tense backdrop for the next NPT Review Conference, scheduled to take place in New York in April and May 2026.
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is the only binding multilateral commitment to disarmament by nuclear-weapon states. Opened for signature in 1968, the Treaty entered into force in 1970. On May 11, 1995, the NPT was extended indefinitely. A total of 191 states have acceded to the Treaty, including five nuclear-weapon states. The NPT stipulates that its implementation be reviewed every five years.
The return of world power rivalry
The expert identified the "return of rivalry between world powers" as a key factor in the degradation of the arms control system.
“We have returned to a period of serious mistrust between the main actors, and it can be argued that the situation is worse than in Cold War times“,” Mukhatzhanova noted.
At the time the NPT was adopted, the two leading nuclear powers—the United States and the Soviet Union—recognized the need for joint efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Now, she says, such understanding is lacking, which complicates the work. If key participants are unable to negotiate directly and do not share common positions on key issues, arms control and non-proliferation, there is a risk that consensus will again not be reached at the next Review Conference.
According to Mukhatzhanova, the task facing member states is to identify areas where broad agreement can be found and to attempt to agree on a document that, while perhaps not going into great detail, will reaffirm their commitment to the fundamental goals of the NPT—preventing the use of nuclear weapons, preventing their proliferation, and moving toward disarmament.
Possible nuclear tests are a "highly alarming signal"
Commenting on the statements in the US about possible resumption of nuclear testingThe expert noted that the international community's response will depend on the details.
Photo UN/M. Kishida
Hiroshima after a nuclear bomb was dropped on the city in August 1945.
If we are talking about hydronuclear (subcritical) tests or flight tests, that is, non-explosive formats, this still creates tension in the context of the NPT and Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)"The United States previously claimed that hydronuclear tests violated the CTBT, but now they're declaring the possibility of conducting them because Russia and China are doing so. Does this represent a change in the interpretation of the CTBT? Does it mean they intend to withdraw from the treaty? This raises questions that most of us would rather not see on the agenda," Mukhatzhanova noted, emphasizing that such statements call into question previous commitments and create additional uncertainty.
At the same time, she continued, if a return to full-scale explosive tests is possible, “we are talking about a radical and extremely negative change that will open the door for other states.”
She recalled that Russia had previously stated its readiness to conduct tests in response to the actions of other countries.
New technologies: an accelerating arms race and growing risks of errors
Mukhatzhanova noted that technological advances such as hypersonic systems, autonomous platforms, and artificial intelligence could significantly change the landscape of strategic stability.
"Hypersonic missiles combine speed and maneuverability… they can better evade missile defense systems and make detection more difficult," the expert said.
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The development of such systems, she said, is pushing other states to build up their own capabilities, creating a “new stage in the nuclear arms race.”
Of particular concern is integration of artificial intelligence algorithms into early warning and decision-making systems.
"The concern is that too much will be left to the machines… this could lead to unintended escalation through misinterpretation of data," Mukhatzhanova explained.
She recalled that a resolution had previously been submitted to the First Committee of the General Assembly calling for “meaningful human control” over all technologies related to nuclear systems.
Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones: An Example of Constructive Cooperation
Despite the crisis in global architecture, Mukhatzhanova singled out nuclear-free zones as “an example of positive movement forward.”
“This is an example of how states can jointly represent their security without nuclear weapons "and work to ensure it," she said. Currently, nuclear-weapon-free zone treaties cover Latin America and the Caribbean, the South Pacific, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Central Asia.
CTBTO
The Semipalatinsk test site in Kazakhstan, where the USSR conducted nuclear weapons tests.
In addition to regional nuclear-weapon-free zones, there are other international mechanisms and treaties aimed at preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons in certain areas. For example, the UN General Assembly has affirmed Mongolia's status as a nuclear-weapon-free country. The General Assembly is also discussing the creation of nuclear-free zone in the Middle East regionThe sixth session of the Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction shall be held from 17 to 21 November 2025 at the headquarters of the United Nations.
There are also international treaties that limit the deployment of nuclear weapons in special areas: the Antarctic Treaty, Outer Space Treaty And Moon Agreement, which regulate the activities of states on Earth, the Moon, and other celestial bodies. Furthermore, the Seabed Treaty prohibits the deployment of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction on the ocean floor and in its subsoil.
The expert paid special attention to Central Asian zone – the youngest and one of the most advanced. This agreement includes obligations to comply with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, requires additional protocols, and emphasizes high standards of nuclear safety.
Mukhatzhanova noted that in this sense, the Central Asian region can serve as a model for future agreements: the region's states are capable of promoting higher standards within the framework of other treaties to which they are parties. According to her, Kazakhstan and now Kyrgyzstan, which have joined Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), may advocate for stricter verification standards, since the Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty itself requires an Additional Protocol alongside a comprehensive safeguards agreement. She added that zone participants also commit to complying with the CTBT—regardless of whether it has entered into force—and adhering to IAEA-approved nuclear safety standards.
Thus, the expert emphasized, this is not only about creating a nuclear-weapon-free zone, but also about promoting higher standards, which could serve as an example for other nuclear treaties.
Reasons for hope
Despite serious challenges, Mukhatzhanova also sees positive trends that suggest opportunities for restoring dialogue and reducing risks.
"We've already been in a situation of high levels of threats and mistrust—and humanity has found a way out through confidence-building measures and arms control," she said. Based on this experience, the international community is in a better position to work on restoring or creating a new architecture. arms control and disarmament.
UN News Service/K. Konyrova
Painting by international anti-nuclear movement activist Karipbek Kuyukov.
Mukhatzhanova also emphasized the growing youth activity and the willingness of new generations to question the traditional understanding of nuclear deterrence.
"They're willing to question how nuclear weapons have traditionally been viewed as a guarantor of security. That gives us hope," she said.
The expert also noted the high awareness of humanitarian consequences nuclear weapons and a growing sense of responsibility among non-nuclear states.
"Even a limited use of nuclear weapons would affect countries far beyond the conflict zone… and this understanding could help move things forward," the expert concluded.
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