Translation. Region: Russian Federation –
Source: United Nations – United Nations –
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November 4, 2025 Climate and environment
According to an analysis by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), countries' new climate commitments under the Paris Agreement have only marginally improved the projected global temperature rise this century. Climate threats continue to mount.
Overall indicators remained almost unchanged
The 2025 Emissions Gap Report says that if Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, global temperatures will rise by 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21st century, up from 2.6 to 2.8 degrees Celsius last year.
However, some of the change in forecasts is due to changes in calculation methodology, as well as the upcoming US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. Thus, the countries' new commitments have had little impact on the overall figures. The world remains far from the Paris Agreement's goal of keeping warming to 2 degrees Celsius, while striving to stay below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Unprecedented emissions cuts are needed
"Even with current commitments, we are still facing climate catastrophe," the UN Secretary-General said. Antonio Guterres.
The report's authors warn that the average global temperature increase over several decades will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, at least temporarily. This increase will be difficult to reverse. Much larger emissions reductions at a much faster pace will be required to minimize damage to ecosystems, the economy, and human health.
"Countries have already tried three times to fulfill the promises of the Paris Agreement, and each time they have failed to achieve this goal," said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.
"National climate plans have led to some progress, but it's too slow. We still need unprecedented emission reductions within a tight timeframe and in the face of an increasingly complex geopolitical situation," she added.
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According to UNEP, by September 30, 2025, only 60 parties to the Paris Agreement, accounting for 63 percent of global emissions, had submitted new emission reduction targets for 2035. Moreover, most countries are not on track to meet even their 2030 targets.
To align the global warming trajectory with the Paris Agreement goals, drastic and unprecedented emissions reductions are needed, which are becoming increasingly unattainable. Emissions increased by 2.3 percent in 2024.
Full implementation of all NDCs would reduce global emissions in 2035 by about 15 percent compared to 2019, but this is still not enough: a 35 percent reduction is needed to keep warming to 2 degrees Celsius, and a 55 percent reduction to keep warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Solutions exist
Nevertheless, UNEP experts emphasize that the goal of keeping warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius remains extremely important.
"Every day, it becomes increasingly difficult to ensure a livable future. But this is no reason to give up. It is a reason to intensify efforts and accelerate action," said António Guterres.
"The solutions have long been available. From rapidly expanding renewable energy to reducing methane emissions, we know what needs to be done," said Inger Andersen.
The report also notes that since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, projections for global temperature rise have declined from 3–3.5 degrees Celsius to the current 2.3–2.5 degrees Celsius, but real change requires political will and reform of the international financial architecture.
The G20 countries, which account for 77 percent of global emissions, play a special role. However, their combined emissions still fall short of the 2030 targets: in 2024, their emissions increased by 0.7 percent.
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