Translation. Region: Russian Federal
Source: Central Bank of Russia –
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Banks' claims on companies increased by 2.4% in the second quarter after decreasing by 0.2% in the previous quarter. It is expected that as monetary conditions ease, demand for loans will gradually increase and by the end of 2025, claims on companies will increase by 9-12% (8-13% in the previous forecast).
The population's mortgage debt also grew faster than in the first quarter (1.4 and 0.01%, respectively). However, this is slightly less than the regulator's expectations, so the upper limit of the forecast range for 2025 has been revised and reduced to 6 from 8%.
The consumer loan portfolio in the second quarter continued to shrink (-1.6%) in the context of tight monetary and macroprudential policies. The upper limit of the forecast range for the year was adjusted to 2% from 4%.
The net interest margin forecast has been maintained in the range of 4.0–4.4% by the end of 2025, while it is expected to be closer to its upper limit. High interest income compensates for the increase in the cost of risk, so the net profit forecast for 2025 has been maintained at the level of 3.0–3.5 trillion rubles.
More detailed information is provided in the quarterly review "Banking sector".
Please note: This information is raw content obtained directly from the source of the information. It is an accurate report of what the source claims and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.