Analysis of China's Economic Growth Drivers for the First Half of the Year

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Source: People's Republic of China in Russian – People's Republic of China in Russian –

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Source: People's Republic of China – State Council News

On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China released data showing that China's gross domestic product (GDP) for the first half of 2025 was 66.0536 trillion yuan. In terms of constant prices, the year-on-year growth reached 5.3%. NBS Deputy Director Sheng Laiyun noted that since the beginning of this year, the national economy has withstood the pressure and, despite the difficulties, continues to develop steadily, accumulating new driving forces for growth and improving the circulation of economic processes.

As the data show, in the first half of the year, the contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 52%, gross capital formation was 16.8%, and net exports of goods and services was 31.2%. Of these “three driving forces” of the economy, consumption remains the main factor in GDP growth.

According to Wang Xiaosong, professor at the Institute of Economics at Renmin University of China, the data for the first half of the year show that the Chinese economy is developing steadily while maintaining stability, demonstrating its high resilience and potential for future growth. This is mainly due to China's solid industrial base – both the manufacturing and service sectors have made significant progress in recent years. The indicators for the first half of the year show that added value and investment in machinery are growing rapidly, demonstrating the high resilience and potential for development of the Chinese economy. In addition, the government has taken a number of measures to stabilize growth. Both fiscal policy and targeted monetary policy have had a very positive effect.

In the first half of the year, the consumer market continued to gain momentum, and the potential of the super-large Chinese market was steadily unleashed, demonstrating the dynamism of the Chinese economy. In terms of market sales, the total retail sales volume of consumer goods in the first half of the year was 24.55 trillion yuan, up 5% year-on-year.

According to Qi Yunlan, deputy department director and research fellow at the Institute of Market Economy, Development Research Center of the State Council, this year, with the effective combination of policies to actively support consumption and the continued optimization of the consumption structure, the domestic consumer market has improved significantly. The trade-in program has been expanded and improved, which has stimulated the acceleration of growth in commodity consumption.

According to statistics, in the first half of this year, China's industrial production rapidly gained momentum, and the machinery and high-tech manufacturing industries showed good growth dynamics. The added value of machinery increased by 10.2% compared with the same period last year, and that of high-tech manufacturing by 9.5%. From January to May, the number of applications for valid invention patents in China approached 5 million, up 12.8% year-on-year.

According to Lian Ping, chairman of the China Forum of Chief Economists and director of the Guangkai Institute of Industrial Research, the economic performance in the first six months generally exceeded market expectations, with the main feature being the release of pent-up demand and the improvement of the economic structure. Consumption growth was higher than market expectations and significantly recovered from the previous year. In addition, production and investment in the manufacturing industry showed steady positive dynamics, especially in areas related to new-quality productive forces, where the growth rate exceeded the double-digit threshold.

In the first half of the year, the total volume of import and export trade was 21.7876 trillion yuan, up 2.9% year-on-year. Machinery exports grew by 9.5% to account for 60% of total exports.

Qin Tai, deputy director and chief macroeconomic analyst at Huafu Securities Research Institute, said that two key factors played a decisive role in the first half of the year. First, financial subsidies for durable goods provided a significant stimulus effect. Second, China's industrial chain, with its integrity, advanced technology and resilience, performed well.

Sheng Laiyun said that the economy as a whole performed steadily in the first half of the year, showing positive dynamics while maintaining stability, which is a very valuable achievement. Since the beginning of this year, China has been implementing more active and effective macroeconomic policies, which has played an important role in maintaining stability. According to the instructions of the central government, relevant departments will speed up the implementation of a set of measures for the second half of the year in the near future, and they will continue to play a key role in ensuring the stable functioning of the economy.

Please note: This information is raw content obtained directly from the source of the information. It is an accurate report of what the source claims and does not necessarily reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

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